14 November 2024

U.S.-India under Trump 2.0: A Return to Reciprocity

Richard M. Rossow

A new Trump Administration will take office in January. While the past is not necessarily a precedent, we can make some reasonable assumptions about how the bilateral relationship will evolve. Job creation and balancing trade will be strongly prioritized and may cause renewed tensions with India. The Trump Administration will likely want to see more direct reciprocity in exchange for assistance such as technology transfers. But we should expect continued focus on Indo-Pacific security and in attracting new investments into the United States. India can be an important partner on both fronts, which will provide ballast to the relationship.
Looking Back at Trump 1.0

During the last Trump Administration, U.S.-India ties fared well despite some real areas of tension. In particular, the defense relationship saw a number of concrete steps forward such as the creation of the tri-service exercise TIGER TRIUMPH, concluding negotiations on defense interoperability agreements, and relaxing defense export controls though steps like moving India to Tier-1 of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s “Strategic Trade Authorization” licensing list. Apart from these operational steps, the fact that the United States was more aggressively confronting China gave comfort to the Indian government that America’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security was not wavering, despite the political transition in Washington, DC. The nascent subject of a U.S.-China “G2 condominium” was largely put to rest. Strategic cooperation with India went beyond bilateral ties. Notably, the Trump Administration championed an elevation of the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) to become a recurring cabinet-level meeting.

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