2 November 2024

Ukraine: What Next?

Lawrence Freedman

I have managed to pose for myself a question that is impossible to answer. It might be easier to answer when we know who has won the presidential election, although even then it will probably still be unwise to draw definite conclusions. Predicting the course of a war is a foolish thing to try to do, especially without access to the situation on the frontlines or the most secret conversations in the relevant national capitals.

The history of this conflict is already littered with discredited expectations, both optimistic and pessimistic. Most importantly, what happens next depends on decisions that have yet to be made. Governments still have choices.

Yet this question of ‘what next?’ is hard to duck because it is asked so regularly and so urgently that it is not one that can be easily put aside. There is currently quite a lot of doom around as people ask how long Ukraine can cope with the Russian onslaught and whether it is time to consider some compromise peace. This line of commentary often assumes that a compromise peace could be readily found if only Kyiv would abandon its dreams of total victory and appreciate the seriousness of its position. The compromise peace those urging this course usually have in mind is not, however, on offer. It bears very little relationship to the one that Putin proposes, which involves no compromises at all. He only demands Ukraine’s surrender.

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