Hal Brands
The US is in the midst of its presidential transition, but the world isn’t waiting patiently for Jan. 20 to arrive. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is pressing his advantage in Ukraine. Israel is devastating Hezbollah and Hamas. The Houthis of Yemen are intensifying their Red Sea attacks. And even as Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with President Joe Biden one final time last weekend, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, China is bracing for trouble with President-elect Donald Trump.
For Biden, the valedictory meeting was a chance to show off his administration’s record of competing with China on the one hand, while trying to stabilize the relationship on the other. Washington and Beijing announced an agreement not to give artificial intelligence control over the use of nuclear weapons (not that either side was planning to do so, anyway), even as the Biden team keeps tightening the technological and financial controls it has placed on China.
For Xi, however, the meeting served a different purpose. Yes, the Chinese leader touted his and Biden’s “joint stewardship” and voiced the usual platitudes about the virtues of cooperation and the dangers of rivalry. But Xi, like every other leader on the planet, is already looking past Biden, to Trump.
Some Chinese analysts see opportunity in Trump’s presidency, given his propensity to alienate US allies and the likelihood that he will sow conflict and division within America itself. Others may hope that Elon Musk, the Trump whisperer with massive business interests in China, will assure Beijing a sympathetic ear.
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