Mick Ryan
The timing of the US presidential election in November and the inauguration of the next US president in January will likely coincide with a lower tempo period in the Ukraine war as both sides hunker down for the winter. This does not mean that the fighting stops, but it does mean that military activity will appear to decline relative to the higher tempo spring and summer months. It is likely neither side will be able to make decisive inroads during this time. While a re-elected Democratic administration may continue its current level of support for Ukraine even if it is unclear who is winning the war, what might a newly elected Trump administration do?
Russia’s stalled momentum
Over the last seven months, Russia has attempted to exploit the failure of the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive, the late 2023 civil-military crisis in the Ukrainian government, and the long debate on US aid to Ukraine that deprived the Ukrainians of much needed munitions and equipment in early 2024. The Russian military has been conducting a large-scale offensive campaign on the ground and in the air to pummel the Ukrainian military and to influence the political calculus of Ukraine’s government and its Western supporters.
But for all its efforts, and the loss of 180,000 troops in that time, Russia has only made minor territorial gains. It has not changed the willingness of the Ukrainian military to fight, or the will of the Ukrainian government to continue its defence against what they view as an existential war being waged upon them.
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