Juan Alberto Ruiz Casado
As the world braces for the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the geopolitical landscape is set for a seismic shift. Nowhere will this be more keenly felt than in the delicate and contentious relationship between the United States and China over Taiwan. With Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and his administration’s expected hawkish stance on China, the future of the island hangs in the balance.
Three key factors set up the potential consequences of Trump’s second term on Taiwan. First, we can expect a significant shift in U.S. discourse, from a values-based defense of democracy to a more strategic and business-driven approach. Second, Trump’s inner circle, filled with China hawks, is likely to push for increased militarization of the region and even for a proxy war in Taiwan. Finally, Beijing is certain that a “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) administration will move in this direction, prompting Chinese authorities to ramp up their own preparations for conflict.
Trump’s Transactional Approach to International Relations
After Trump’s re-election, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, extended his congratulations, highlighting “the longstanding Taiwan-U.S. partnership, built on shared values and interests.” But what exactly are these “shared values”? Values are often portrayed as timeless, fundamental principles that define a nation’s spirit. Yet, values are not static; they evolve.
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