Dr Bryan Sims
It is unsurprising that as the world entered its 18th consecutive year of democratic decline, it was also experiencing a record number of conflicts, with 2023 being among the most violent years since the end of the cold war. This year’s Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development successfully unpacked the complex intersectionality among factors driving instability and violence throughout the globe. Yet while the topic of authoritarianism was raised over and over again during the Forum, it was treated primarily as a governance problem. In fact, authoritarianism is a cross-cutting and fundamental threat to peace and security.
The authoritarianism–kleptocracy–conflict nexus
Addressing authoritarianism is integral to addressing peace and security challenges. A recent policy paper by the Atlantic Council and the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict reminds us that a more authoritarian world is likely to lead to more interstate warfare. In contrast, research finds that the more democratic states are, the less likely they are to wage wars against each other. But that is not the only security risk of rising authoritarianism; autocratic governments are also more likely to harbour violent extremists than are democracies.
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