Happymon Jacob
Consider this scenario for the Russia-Ukraine war in the year 2030: As much as U.S. President Donald Trump or other third parties tried to force a final settlement and lasting peace, they only succeeded in getting the two sides to agree to a series of measures to manage their war. With neither Moscow nor Kyiv accepting each other’s war aims—and with neither side strong enough to decisively defeat the other—the two countries are mired in a low-intensity but continued conflict with occasional, limited skirmishes. A complete end to the fighting is nowhere in sight. In some ways, the situation is reminiscent of the period after the first Russian invasion in 2014, when the Europe-brokered Minsk agreements contained but did not end the war in Ukraine’s Donbas region during the eight years that preceded the much larger 2022 invasion.
In this scenario, Western support for Ukraine continues, but it has dwindled as the United States shifts focus to its strategic rivalry with China and as populist, pro-Russian parties gain ground in European countries. Russia continues to receive some support from North Korea and other partners, but this has not enabled a decisive breakthrough. As the United States seeks to peel Russia away from China, Europe sees a “managed” Russia-Ukraine conflict as less risky than an all-out war.
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