7 November 2024

The Next U.S. President Will Find a Europe Much Changed From Four Years Ago

Daniel Kochis

If Donald Trump wins the election on Tuesday, he will encounter a Europe far different from the one he knew during his first term both in terms of personnel and policy.

A second Trump term could very well be a baptism by fire for new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. After a decade of leadership by Jens Stoltenberg, whom some regarded as a Trump whisperer, NATO has turned to a leader known for being a quiet builder of consensus.

The G7 has also seen significant turnover. Think back to the infamous photo from the 2018 summit, wherein German Chancellor Angela Merkel is leaning on a table toward a seated and smirking Donald Trump. Of the five world leaders pictured, only French President Emmanuel Macron remains.

Chancellor Merkel is long gone; so are former British Prime Minister Theresa May and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was tragically assassinated in 2022. And today’s weaker Macron is a stark contrast to the Macron of Trump’s first term, who commanded the French political scene.

The United Kingdom has a new Labour government and a different monarch on the throne. In Germany, Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition looks to be on its last legs. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union and very likely next chancellor, is a conservative who has expressed his desire to increase German defense spending, an openness to reversing Merkel’s shuttering of Germany’s nuclear power plants, and a promise to halt mass migration.

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