23 November 2024

The makings of a grand Trump deal in the Middle East

Jamie Dettmer

“Iran is a de facto threshold nuclear power,” said former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. It could be just days or weeks away from being able to assemble a nuclear warhead; nine months to a year from weaponizing it.

And if this is the course of action Tehran chooses, no surgical airstrikes — by either Israel or the United States — would be able to significantly delay it.

Delivered during an exclusive interview with POLITICO, Barak’s somber warning prompts an interesting question: Could the circumstances be shaping up for a deal between Iran and the U.S. if — as seems likely — President-elect Donald Trump retains his interest in stopping wars?

Trump’s recent administrative picks suggest such a deal would be unlikely. Marco Rubio, his pick for secretary of state, has been an unrelenting hawk when it comes to Iran. After the country fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel last month, Rubio noted that: “Only threatening the survival of the regime through maximum pressure and direct and disproportionate measures has a chance to influence and alter their criminal activities.”

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