Ondrej Ditrych & Giuseppe Spatafora
Much is at stake now for Ukraine and European security. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, US policy towards both is poised to change significantly. Europeans must not succumb to doom and gloom or place false hope in last-minute ‘Trump-proofing’ measures, nor should they read too much into Putin’s wait-and see approach. They must get their act together, and fast.
The EU must demonstrate strong resolve in maintaining its military and diplomatic support to Ukraine. It is the only way to avoid the imposition of an unfavourable ‘peace’ settlement on Kyiv – a settlement that would only embolden the Kremlin, give it time to rebuild its forces, and further undermine European security.
Harsh realities
In the face of Trump’s historic success, EU decision-makers must contend with a number of harsh realities.
First, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has heavily relied on Washington’s military and financial assistance to defend against the aggression. US military aid reached €66 billion as of August 2024, far surpassing assistance to any other country. The EU’s share of military assistance to Ukraine has grown over time, but Kyiv still depends on Washington for some categories such as heavy weapons ammunition. The future of this crucial lifeline is now deeply uncertain, given Trump’s record of rallying Congress Republicans to block the supplemental assistance package until April 2024, directly contributing to the Ukraine’s armed forces’ current predicament.
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