Taking Xi at His Word: War in 2027

Harrison Schramm

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Leaders of both China and the United States[i] have opined about the possibility of a Cross (Taiwan) Strait invasion in early 2027. While there are historical examples of countries having deadlines internally (famously, Hitler’s four year plan for Germany[ii]), having both sides of a potential conflict agree – at least in rhetoric – when the war should start is novel.

In this piece, we explore what happens when we take both President Xi and his prospective opponents at their word; that a cross-straits invasion of Taiwan will begin approximately 750 days from press time; Friday, 1 January 2027. Specifically, we would like to explore two issues:

1. If we really believe this war is upon us on this timescale, what should we do, and what are the risks of being wrong?
2. If China really believes that, what would they do that we could observe to know they are serious? What would be the risks to believing them?

But first, a short primer in:

How militaries spend money

Note: If you are a longtime “Pentagon Warrior” you might feel this section is a review; you should read it anyway. Defense budgets are both huge and notoriously opaque. Perhaps surprisingly and counter to popular sentiment, it is straightforward to understand how the United States spends its’ defense budget. You can get an exhaustive briefing here[iii]; and the items not covered in the budget are notable by their rarity. Conversely, it is nigh on impossible to figure out how China spends their defense budget (we’ve tried)[iv].