Elisabeth Braw
Officially the Yi Peng 3 is just a bulk carrier, one of countless such ships carrying everything from grain to coal, aluminum, and fertilizer. But as she left Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga last week, the Chinese-flagged ship may have had a rather different mission. Authorities and the open-source intelligence (OSINT) community have zeroed in on the Yi Peng 3 as potentially responsible for cutting two undersea cables on her journey through the Baltic Sea, and Germany’s defense minister has already called this a hybrid attack. More such incidents should be expected.
On November 17, an undersea cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut, and less than twenty-four hours later, the only communications cable connecting Finland with Germany was also severed. As OSINT investigators quickly gathered, the Yi Peng 3 was at the scene both times. Swedish, Lithuanian, Finnish, and German authorities have not yet publicly blamed the bulk carrier, but as she sailed from the Baltic Sea toward Denmark’s Great Belt and from there toward the Atlantic Ocean, her actions have drawn scrutiny. By the time the bulk carrier reached the Great Belt, on November 19, she was being followed by Danish Navy vessels.
On November 19, Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, expressed what most observers had also concluded. One had to assume, he said, that the incidents were hybrid aggression, and he described them as “sabotage.” Indeed, given that cables and pipelines are painstakingly detailed on navigational charts, it’s nearly impossible for a ship to sever not just one but two cables by accident.
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