James Black, John Kennedy & Rebecca Lucas
Russia shot down one of its own drones — a large and stealthy S-70 — after it flew uncontrolled into Ukrainian territory in early October, sparking speculation about how Moscow lost control of this valuable asset so publicly. It’s an unforced error that will be keenly felt in Moscow, whose high ambitions for producing its own drones have been slow to take flight.
Given shortfalls in manpower, munitions, artillery, and aircraft, Russia has signaled its belief that uncrewed systems could be transformative in an attritional war, listing drone production among the Kremlin’s priority projects. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also announced plans to increase drone production tenfold in 2024, aiming to manufacture 1.4 million this year.
But is this realistic or just more propaganda?
Russia will struggle to meet this target and will likely have to rely on China to procure enough drones. To supply this demand, China would need to significantly boost its own production.
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