Nick Sorrentino
In our previous post we argued that the Biden administration’s authorization of long range strikes from the Ukraine into Russia, with “western-made” missiles was not only a mistake, but an act of shortsighted ego driven policy. (At least that’s what it looks like to us.) In the wake of Trump’s win, and with it the assumption that Ukraine and Russia would soon be forced to the negotiation table to settle things, the Biden administration purposely upped the heat in Ukraine, causing as much chaos as possible before power is handed over in Washington. There are many people in the American foreign policy community who are all-in on Ukraine. That Putin would emerge from the conflict intact is just too much for them.
The argument we often hear (and from people for whom we have great respect) is that if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine using our money but Ukraine’s blood it will soon be NATO’s (and American) blood on the line as Putin rolls his way through The Continent. These people argue that total European dominance is Putin’s master plan.
We have little doubt that if it was possible Putin might just fancy such an idea. But at this point, barring some monumental development not yet on the geopolitical horizon, it’s not possible. Putin can’t at this point project power beyond the small slice of Ukraine that is the Donbas. The idea that the Russian army is going to roll into Warsaw, never mind Berlin or Paris appears to us to be ludicrous. Logistically it would be pretty much guaranteed suicide for Moscow. This, before even considering NATO’s wrath.
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