Tom Johansmeyer
Risk is easily measured in meals. Vladimir Lenin claimed, “[e]very society is three meals away from chaos.” Britain’s MI5 believes society is “four meals away from anarchy.” If you can’t feed people, societal discord could follow, and where there are preexisting grievances, the problem is even more acute.
For foreign influence operations, food insecurity offers a ready lever for targeting communities at their most vulnerable. It’s easy to manipulate hungry people. And when that insecurity comes from a natural disaster, the influence operational environment becomes quite fertile. Victims look for hope, which leaves an open door for foreign influence. The problem has already taken hold and is poised to grow. But the solution already exists—right under our noses—money.
It’s tough to target hungry people when victims are fed. To put food back on the table, vulnerable states could turn to parametric insurance, a risk-transfer format already used by some developing market nations for hurricane and earthquake protection.
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