Lonnie Henley
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the weapons, equipment, doctrine and operational concepts required to conquer the island in the face of full U.S. military intervention. The PLA has made considerable progress toward that goal and may deem itself fully capable by the 2027 force development target set by Xi Jinping.
Even after the PLA has reached its development targets, however, an invasion of Taiwan would remain an extremely difficult undertaking with a high risk of failure. The PLA may not perform up to its own standards, or the uncertainties in such a complex operation may turn out more challenging than anticipated, or sheer bad luck and the fog of war may thwart the best of plans. A failed attempt to take Taiwan by force could have dire consequences for China’s global standing and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) hold on power.
There are many ways a Chinese invasion could go wrong, so many that it is difficult to offer more than a long list and brief description of topics that deserve much fuller treatment. What follows is far from exhaustive but it attempts to group these into coherent bins and focus on the most salient vulnerabilities in the invasion effort.
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