Assaf Zoran
After years of fighting a covert shadow war based on the use of proxies and clandestine operations, Israel and Iran are in a new phase of direct military conflict. This shift undermines the use of ambiguity, the possibility of denial or containment, brings the region closer to a boiling point, and increases the importance of diplomacy. The large scope and sophistication of Israel’s attack on October 25, alongside the nighttime targeting of multiple military sites throughout Iran, highlight a nuanced approach: a willingness to risk a wider confrontation while still facilitating de-escalation and aiming to avoid an all-out war.
The weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas and a desire to target what Jerusalem perceives as the “octopus’ head” rather than just its proxy “tentacles” drive Israel's recent actions. This approach is bolstered by public support, as Israeli society has radicalized and appears to have accepted the costs associated with regional fighting since the October 7 events. By taking direct responsibility and showcasing offensive independence, defense cooperation with the United States, operational superiority, and intelligence accuracy, Israel aims to deter further direct Iranian assaults and cut the sinews connecting Iran with its proxy network.
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