2 November 2024

Israel restored deterrence against Iran…for now

Amos Yadlin

Nearly a month after Iran’s October 1 missile attack, Israel responded early Saturday morning with an unprecedented, wide, and publicized Israeli strike on Iran. The attack brought Tehran into the line of fire for the first time since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. A year after the Simchat Torah catastrophe, Israel has achieved yet another significant success, strengthening its deterrence against Iran and across the region. However, it is essential to remember that the military achievements across all arenas have not yet been translated by the political echelon into arrangements that would improve Israel’s long-term strategic position. It is equally crucial to temper our perspective on these accomplishments when considering a formidable nation like Iran, which has extensive missile capabilities, strategic patience, and a willingness to sacrifice.

In this strike, the Israel Defense Forces demonstrated an operational capacity normally reserved for major powers, involving complex planning, high-quality intelligence, and use of large-scale munitions over distances of 1,400-1,600 kilometers, crossing intermediary countries’ airspaces with in-air refueling. Israeli Air Force jets and the munitions they carried managed to penetrate Iran’s defense systems, hit their targets precisely, and return safely, after successfully striking approximately 20 high-value military and security targets across Iran.

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