Eliot A. Cohen
Over the past year, after suffering a devastating surprise and brutal losses, Israel has achieved remarkable military successes. Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the greatest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust, is dead. So, too, are most of his senior subordinates and military commanders. Hamas guerrillas harass Israeli soldiers in Gaza, but what had been an army of tens of thousands—organized into five light infantry brigades and more than two dozen battalions—has been shattered, with half of the fighters dead, by Israeli estimates, and many others wounded or in captivity.
Up north, the successes are no less dramatic. The charismatic and shrewd head of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is dead. So is his successor. So is Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s most important military figure. And so is most of the rest of the high command. Thousands of exploding pagers, walkie-talkies, and laptops have killed or disabled their users in Hezbollah’s army, which was perhaps double the size of Hamas’s.
Most of Hezbollah’s inventory of 150,000 missiles and rockets has been destroyed—more than 80 percent, according to the Israelis—and the group’s ability to coordinate has been so fractured that instead of the feared volleys of 1,000 projectiles a day, it struggles to launch 50 or 100. The area along Israel’s border, in which Israeli soldiers have found stockpiles of anti-tank missiles and other weaponry in many of the houses, has been painstakingly cleared. Here, too, guerrillas are attacking Israel Defense Forces soldiers, but Hezbollah can no longer muster the large, complex military formations that were formerly more numerous, better trained, better equipped, and better led than their Hamas counterparts.
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