Benjamin Giltner
The Middle East is on the brink of full-scale regional war. Israel recently launched retaliatory strikes against Iran. While Israel avoided targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, there is still a risk that Israel’s and Iran’s back-and-forth missile strikes will drag the United States into yet another war in the Middle East.
An array of individuals, such as former prime minister Naftali Bennett and John Bolton, have encouraged—and continue to encourage—Israel’s military to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities. With the JCPOA dead in the water, hawks argue that Israel’s only option for stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is war. However, the arguments in favor of a strike against Iran’s nuclear capabilities are misplaced. An attack would not set the program back dramatically and would likely convince Iran that it needs nuclear weapons to be secure. At the end of the day, while Iran acquiring nuclear capabilities is not ideal, it would not spell disaster for Israel or the United States.
Supporters of preemptively striking Iran grossly overestimate Israel’s ability to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Military intelligence is always imperfect, making it unlikely that Israel could know where all of Iran’s nuclear capabilities are located. For instance, Iran has likely dispersed its nuclear research technology and centers across the country to make targeting more difficult. Though Iran only has two enrichment sites capable of enriching its uranium to levels needed to possess a nuclear weapon, Iran has hardened its nuclear facilities—with at least one buried so deep underground that even U.S. airstrikes would be unlikely to destroy it. This makes detecting and destroying these nuclear capabilities more difficult for Israel and would require U.S. participation to have a higher chance of destroying them.
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