1 November 2024

India-China border agreement: Five reasons to be cautiously optimistic

Manoj Kewalramani

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s announcement of an agreement between India and China on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) indicates the beginning of a new round of high-stakes diplomacy between the two Asian giants. Addressing the media on Monday, Misri said that the agreement had led to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in 2020. He added: “We will be taking the next steps on this.” Subsequently, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar underscored the significance of the deal, stating that “we have gone back to the 2020 position” and that “disengagement with China has been completed.” While the agreement seems to be a positive outcome, details are sketchy. One must, therefore, maintain a sense of cautious optimism.

First, China’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged that “the two sides have reached a solution to the relevant issues.” It added that “China positively evaluates this”, and will be working with India to implement the solution that has been agreed. There is little that this reveals, other than the fact that there has been no implementation of the deal on the ground so far. Second, it is unclear whether the current agreement implies that the buffer zones created over the past four years across several friction points will cease to exist. Some reporting has indicated that this is the logical conclusion of an agreement that restores patrolling rights. However, a formal clarification from the government would be useful in this regard. Third, there needs to be greater clarity on whether patrolling will take place based on earlier standard operating procedures or whether there is a new SOP under this agreement.

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