18 November 2024

Imagining Ukrainian end-of-war scenarios

Oleh Tymoshenko, Anastasiia Kryvoruchenko, and Tim Mak

A Marine Corps guard stands by as President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump meet in the Oval Office of the White House for transition talks on November 13, 2024, (Photo by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Donald Trump has chosen a confusing national security team, filled with internal contradictions on Ukraine policy, from supportive to hostile.

Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has said he wants to “tak[e] the handcuffs” off by allowing Ukrainians to use U.S. weapons for long-range strikes, and enforcing U.S. sanctions against Russia.

Trump’s CIA Director nominee, John Ratcliffe, has claimed that the Biden administration’s strategy in the war has been “Ukraine first, Ohio last," accusing the Biden White House of promoting "welfare and Ukraine pensions" over American interests.

The president-elect’s pick for Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, opposes U.S. aid to Ukraine. When the 2022 full-scale invasion began, she encouraged the parties to show "aloha" and said the Biden administration could have avoided the war just by acknowledging Russia's "legitimate security concerns."

Donald Trump’s choice to head the Pentagon is Pete Hegseth, who has expressed skepticism of NATO, and warned against “American intervention” in Ukraine pushing Russia into nuclear war with the U.S.

But what is clear is that the Trump administration seeks to pressure both sides to the negotiating table. Fox News reported that Trump will "soon" appoint a peace envoy to help diplomatic discussions over an end to the war.

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