William M. Moon
A nuclear state’s greatest responsibility is to keep its warheads secure. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it has put approximately 30 percent of its estimated 5,580 warheads in an untenably precarious position. Early in the war, concerns that the invasion increased the danger of a nuclear detonation or accidental explosion focused on the risk to Ukraine’s four nuclear power plants and Russia’s threats to intentionally escalate the conflict past the nuclear threshold. But the more Ukraine seeks to hit targets inside Russia, the clearer it becomes that Russia’s unwillingness to adequately secure the nuclear arsenals it has stored in its west—which are now within striking distance of Ukrainian missiles and drones and even Ukrainian troops—poses a dire risk.
Every week, Russia is launching up to 800 guided aerial bombs and over 500 attack drones at Ukrainian cities and energy plants. In response, Ukraine has begun launching up to hundreds of drones daily at carefully selected Russian targets. Ukraine has every right to defend itself in this manner, and there is no indication that Ukrainian forces would intentionally target nuclear warhead storage sites. Because Ukrainian drone assaults have already reached as far as Moscow, however, it is clear that at least 14 Russian nuclear storage sites now fall within range of its drones. At least two of those sites are less than 100 miles from the Ukrainian border, well within striking range of the more damaging missiles Ukraine already possesses, and another five sites lie less than 200 miles from the border, close to or just beyond the range of the advanced Western-provided missiles that Ukraine is seeking permission to use against conventional targets in Russia.
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