How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth

Assaf Orion

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One year ago, Hezbollah started what has morphed into the third Lebanon war with Israel, exposing the international failure to implement security arrangements mandated after their second war in 2006. On the ground, this failure can be attributed to the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), but the Security Council and UN secretary-general bear heavy responsibility as well. To end the current war and prevent the next one, any new security arrangements must acknowledge and correct the roots of this failure.

Why 1701 Failed to Prevent War

Upon its adoption in 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ably diagnosed the main reasons for the outbreak of the second war: Hezbollah’s possession of military weapons outside the government’s control, and its deployment of forces in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel. To prevent a third war, 1701 wisely called on Beirut to extend its sovereignty via the LAF (supported by UNIFIL) and to establish a zone south of the Litani River that was free of any nongovernmental armed forces. The government was also asked to disarm all militias in accordance with the Taif Accord and Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1680. And the UN secretary-general was tasked with developing proposals for implementing these resolutions.