2 November 2024

How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation

Stephen J. Cimbala &  Lawrence J. Korb

Discussions of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia have become more frequent in recent months. One such discussion occurred in September during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington, when some government officials and analysts emphasized the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia.

The possibility of nuclear war growing out of this conflict is a serious concern. But an all-out nuclear war is not necessarily the only, or most likely, means by which this war could expand and escalate up to nuclear use. The controversy surrounding Ukrainian demands for permission to use NATO long-range missiles for attacks deeper into Russia poses a major risk of escalation. Likewise, changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the war continues—and its interpretation by Western allies—could make a nuclear first use more likely. Finally, non-nuclear forms of expansion of the war—whether they have already occurred or not—could pose significant challenges in moving toward de-escalation and an eventual peace agreement.

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