Hans Binnendijk and Timo S. Koster
President-elect Donald Trump will likely return to office skeptical about NATO’s value and Europe’s contribution to its own security. Officials who worked directly with Trump in his first term are convinced that he has no qualms about reducing or even ending the United States’ commitment to the Alliance. But Trump will again be a transactional president who wants to demonstrate strength. With the proper initiatives, European allies can save the Alliance. These allies should start by focusing the June 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague on Europe’s strategic responsibilities, agreeing on ways that Europe can remove some of the United States’ defense burden.
Major European powers are faced with flagging economic growth, weakened leadership, and Ukraine war-weariness. Therefore, much of the leadership burden will fall on new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He is up to the task. As a former center-right Dutch prime minister, Rutte is known to have a cordial relationship with Trump, and like Trump, he is a dealmaker.
Ukraine will be first on the docket. Trump is pushing for a quick settlement that would probably result in continued Russian occupation of some Ukrainian land. Rutte has already stressed that the United States’ security interests lie in preventing a Russian victory. Europe should seek to shape Trump’s initiative accordingly. Whatever the terms of a ceasefire, key to lasting peace will be a solid Western commitment to long-term Ukrainian security. That should be Europe’s principal focus. Ideally, that would mean NATO membership for Ukraine. Europe should encourage that outcome, but Trump may resist. If so, the European Union (EU) could step up by prioritizing Ukrainian EU membership, which includes the somewhat weaker Article 42.7 defense commitment. It should also deploy European troops to Ukraine post-conflict to underscore its pending commitment and pledge to provide the majority of long-term military aid to Kyiv.
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