Heartland vs. Sea Power: Why the Rimland Will Shape the Future of World Order

Anu Anwar

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For centuries, the contest for global dominance has been inextricably linked to geography and the civilizations that have thrived within it. From the Heartland to the seas, geopolitical competition has revolved around the control of critical spaces and the strategic advantages they confer. Theories of geopolitics provide frameworks for understanding these dynamics. Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory posited that control over Eurasian interior—the ‘pivot area’— was the key fulcrum to global dominance (Mackinder 1904). Later, Alfred Thayer Mahan, in contrast, shifted the paradigm to the oceans, arguing that naval supremacy was the foundation of global influence (Mahan 1890). This principle remains relevant in many ways, as the United States continues to rely on sea power for its power projection aiming at global dominance. These theories shaped centuries of strategic thinking, guiding the policies of empires and superpowers alike. Mackinder’s ideas underpinned Cold War containment policies, while Mahan’s principles informed British and American naval dominance.

In the 21st century, neither the Heartland nor the seas alone can explain the complexities of current global competition as the world transitions into an era of intensified great power competition and multipolarity. Instead, Nicholas Spykman’s Rimland Theory—which highlights the coastal periphery encircling Eurasia—is the dominant framework for understanding modern geopolitics (Spykman 1944). The Rimland is where land power meets the sea power. It acts as the bridge between land and sea, housing critical natural resources, rapidly growing economies, and a significant portion of the world’s population. The region also hosts vital sea lanes and chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Bab-el-Mandeb, essential for global trade and energy flows. As the U.S.-led Western sea power confronts the land power coalition of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, the Rimland is increasingly becoming the ultimate battleground where the future of the world order will be determined. In the 21st century, the Rimland is not just a geographic space but the geopolitical fulcrum that will shape the balance of power for decades to come.