Smriti Kolar
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO and its allies condemned the offensive as a “brutal and unprovoked war of aggression” and called for an immediate ceasefire.[1] The attack was seen as a violation of international norms. In response, NATO imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, banned Russia from the SWIFT banking system, and provided Ukraine with arms to counter the invasion.[2] NATO also urged other countries to join in condemning Russia’s actions.[3] However, several countries in the Global South chose a ‘non-aligned’ stance. Thirty-two countries abstained from voting on the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution condemning Russia’s aggression.[4] Major economies like India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) maintained neutrality, citing concerns of inflation, energy and food security, and disruptions to global supply chains.[5] This paper uses game theory to analyze the factors that inform India’s non-aligned position, including domestic energy needs, supply chain challenges, military dependencies, diplomatic ties, and regional security concerns.
Game theory helps study strategic scenarios where the actions of one player affect the payoffs of all others, shaping the outcome of the game itself. In this context, a Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium (SPNE) model is useful. An SPNE model is applicable when players make sequential moves based on the strategies and preferences of other players.[6]
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