Edward Lucas
Ukraine is not yet defeated. But Russia has already won the battle that matters most: with the West. Decision-makers in Washington DC, London, Berlin, and Brussels (to name just a few capitals) had the chance to counter Russian imperialism alongside a big, strong, determined country. They decided instead to drip-feed aid and soft-pedal sanctions, for fear of the risks of Russian defeat. Ukraine’s thousand days of sacrifice bought Europe time to rebuild its defenses. It wasted that too.
The price of that is now huge. The Kremlin’s war machine will not stop in Ukraine. The next target is NATO, probably in the Baltic states. Thanks to some fine investigative work by Polish, Lithuanian, and Estonian journalists, we now have a better idea of what is underway. They have used open-source satellite imagery to build a picture of Russia’s military bases in the region and quizzed current and former military leaders to interpret the results.
Nothing will happen immediately. Russia’s presence is heavily depleted. The Baltic Fleet’s landing capability has gone. Barracks, training grounds, and car parks are empty. Huge amounts of equipment and spare parts went to Ukraine. We still have time. But not much.
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