Europe Has Run Out of Time

Norbert Röttgen

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For decades, the transatlantic alliance has been the bedrock of European security. But today, Europe’s partnership with the United States is at a critical juncture. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, there is a genuine risk that U.S. engagement in Europe could drop precipitously. If the United States halts its military aid to Kyiv, the consequences will be profound, both for the war in Ukraine and for the rest of Europe’s defenses against external threats, a revanchist Russia chief among them.

Although Trump’s second term will most likely usher in a radical break from previous U.S. policy, the reality is that discontent with the European contribution to the transatlantic relationship has been simmering in the United States for years. Europe, however, squandered the time it should have spent investing more heavily into the relationship—including by building up its own defenses. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the final wake-up call, creating real momentum behind Europe’s effort to become a credible security actor in its own right. Instead, once again, it relied on the United States to take the lead in a European war. Now, that fallback option is at risk of disappearing, and European leaders cannot simply shift the blame for their predicament to Washington.