Greg Priddy
Much of the commentary in the political press since Donald Trump won the election on November 5 has touted the supposed flood of U.S. crude oil production, which his new industry-friendly policies will unleash. Gasoline will be cheaper. The Saudis, Iranians, and Russians will go broke. U.S. energy dominance will reign supreme. Even a highbrow Washington-insider news outlet like Semafor ran headlines like “Trump Wins, Oil Slumps” and “Gulf Governments may prefer Trump, but they can’t afford him.”
The truth is a lot more mundane, however, and we are more likely to see a plateau in U.S. production rather than a surge in 2025 for reasons having nothing to do with American politics.
It is true that the Biden administration did some things that were not welcomed by the oil industry. Biden raised the royalty costs for drilling on public lands and sharply curtailed the amount of new acreage awarded by as much as 95 percent. The outgoing administration has also almost halted the award of new offshore acreage in the Gulf of Mexico and has made regulatory changes that put the smaller companies that dominate shallow-water offshore production at a disadvantage.
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