David M. Hart
How is global climate diplomacy shaping up at the conference in Baku?
Not surprisingly, the mood in Azerbaijan, at the annual summit to review progress toward the Paris goals (known as COP29), is said to be gloomy, and with good reason. President-elect Donald Trump’s wholesale denial of the science of climate change and his promises to maximize U.S. fossil fuel output are extreme, even compared with leaders of petrostates, including this year’s host nation. During his previous tenure, Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, and he has promised to do so again when he takes office in January.
Yet, the American election is far from the determining factor in the global fight against climate change. Neither is what happens at this COP or the others that will be held during Trump’s second term. What matters is how fast clean energy and climate technologies can get cheaper and better. About a third of the emissions reductions needed to get to net zero are expected to come from technologies that are not currently on the market. If they do come down in price, governments—even the United States— will be willing to take more aggressive actions to cut emissions. If they don’t, climate diplomacy will mostly be hot air that barely nudges emissions levels.
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