Joel Wuthnow
As the prospects of a war across the Taiwan Strait increase, more attention is being paid to the ramifications of conflict for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the region. Analysts have pondered what a PRC victory over Taiwan could imply for the regional military balance and the broader security architecture.1 Others have calculated the economic disruptions that a war would cause for China as well as for the global economy.2 Such assessments underscore the costs of conflict and thus the need to find ways to prevent war by deterring aggression.
Fewer analysts have considered the results of a failed attempt by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to seize Taiwan. U.S. policy seeks to attain a credible capability to thwart a PLA invasion if deterrence fails, but the resulting “peace,” some contend, would neither be peaceful nor stable. Lonnie Henley argues that the PLA would respond to a defeat by implementing a long-term, high-intensity blockade designed to starve Taiwan into submission.3 Others view political instability in China as a real possibility, with those who “lost” Taiwan “moved out in favor of a new group of leaders.”4 Still others believe that China would retain its military capabilities as well as the “very irredentist, aggressive leadership that started the as-yet hypothetical Taiwan war in the first place.”5
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