China’s Dilemmas Deepen as North Korea Enters Ukraine War

Carla Freeman, Ph.D. &  Naiyu Kuo

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Until late October, the big questions about China’s role in the Ukraine conflict centered around whether Beijing would choose to expand its support for Russia to include lethal aid, or if it might engage in more active peacemaking to end the conflict. Then, on November 4, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukraine had captured some territory earlier this year. Days later, the State Department confirmed that North Korean soldiers had begun fighting Ukrainian troops.

North Korean combat troops’ support of Russia’s aggression has put an urgent set of new questions on the table for China: How might Beijing respond to this move by its North Korean ally amid the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership that it signals? What might Beijing do in response to requests from Washington and its allies to press Pyongyang to pull its troops home? Will China be able to sustain the distance it has sought to maintain from the conflict while providing support for Moscow? Or will Pyongyang’s role in the conflict change Beijing’s approach to the war in Ukraine?