Lawrence Freedman
Since Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election questions have been asked about whether he will push Ukraine into an unjust and unstable peace that will give Vladimir Putin all he wants, or that, even worse, he might just abandon Ukraine and leave it to cope as best it can without any help from the US. These questions matter enormously to Europe. Anxious discussions are already underway about whether and how Ukraine can be supported without the US, as it continues to resist Russian aggression. In the event of it being asked to accept an unsatisfactory deal, one precluding NATO membership, are there ways to give Ukraine confidence in its long-term security while it seeks to rebuild its economy and repair its cities?
We do not know the policies Trump will adopt on the war after 20 January and, in all probability, neither does he. This is not only because of his famed unpredictability, or the uncertainties surrounding the fighting, but also because Ukraine is nothing like as important to him as it is to Europeans. He has not appointed people to senior positions in his government with a Ukraine policy in mind. He has appointed them above all for their loyalty, to repay favours, and to demonstrate as sharp a break as possible with the liberal mainstream and the Biden administration. In the case of the Pentagon, the intelligence agencies, and the FBI his aim is to purge them of his actual and perceived enemies to prevent them thwarting his every move, which is what he believes they did during his first term in the White House.
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