Can India Become a Developed Economy by Mid-Century?

ANNE O. KRUEGER

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At an economics conference in the early 1960s, one speaker began his presentation on development by citing India as an example. Before he could continue, an economist interrupted and asked: “What other country in the world is like India?” The room fell silent. To this day, this question remains unanswered.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India aims to achieve developed-country status by 2047, the centenary of its independence from the British Empire. This ambitious goal, which could transform the Indian economy and reshape the global economic landscape, has generated widespread excitement.

But reaching this milestone is no small feat. Conservative estimates suggest that India’s per capita income growth would need to outpace China’s by 3.5 percentage points each year to meet Modi’s 2047 target. While India has experienced strong annual growth of 6-8% in recent years, the economy is already showing signs of slowing. Moreover, even if a slowdown can be averted, sustaining this growth momentum over the next two decades will be challenging.