Anti-Strategy in Ukraine

Jahara Matisek, Michael Miklaucic & Will Reno

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NATO has an Anti-Strategy problem, good intentions for Ukraine but highly flawed planning. Translated into practice: Washington outsources escalation management to Moscow. It allows Russia to dictate the actions and reactions to its invasion and occupation of Ukraine on its own terms. Moreover, NATO’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia exhibits loose threads, critical asymmetries, and gaping holes in the NATO fabric. Of the loose threads the most errant is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the “illiberal democrat” who empathizes with Vladimir Putin, obstructs Ukraine support, and supports Russia’s war effort through Hungary’s continued dependence on Russian oil and gas. The most jarring asymmetry juxtaposes the assertiveness of the frontline states such as Poland, the Baltics, and new NATO members Finland and Sweden, against the hesitant caution of the core NATO powers including the United States, France, and especially Germany. Among the gaping holes none is more glaringly self-evident than the hole where a unified strategy for victory in Ukraine should be.

We attended the Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) 2024, which convened in early October with over 2,600 participants from 90 countries and 30 governmental delegations. NATO’s self-admiring unity in supporting Ukraine was on exuberant display, though the specter of Orban and his pro-Russian colleagues throughout right-wing Europe was notable by their non-presence. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is another loose thread whose government halted military aid to Ukraine and sought to open communications channels with Moscow. A menagerie of populist parties including Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland party (AfD), Slovakia’s neo-fascist Republika, Orban’s Fidesz party in Hungary, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians Party, the Revival party in Bulgaria, and France’s Rassemblement National party sympathize with Russia. And perennial NATO bad boy Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he trusts Russia “just as much as I trust the West.” Türkiye has become the biggest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, purchasing over $45 billion worth in 2023. These are just some of the loose threads.