Ben Coxon
19th November will mark 1,000 days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This grim milestone comes at a time of increasing uncertainty for Kyiv, particularly following the re-election of Donald Trump to the White House. However, the outcome of the war is far from decided, as Ukraine remains steadfast in its fight against Moscow, holding onto territory in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and inflicting heavy casualties on the invading forces. So, in this week’s Big Ask, we asked ten experts: After 1,000 days of war, what is next for Ukraine?
Sir Michael Fallon
Secretary of State for Defence (2014-2017)
Wars end. Long or short, they come to an end eventually. But it’s hard to see this one ending easily or suddenly. First, the end should be sustainable. Ukraine has been invaded twice in the last ten years, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and Ukraine’s other allies failing to deter Russia each time. Any settlement should be enforceable, and should prevent Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, from restarting his war in three, five or ten years’ time. That might mean deploying NATO troops on the ground to secure the ceasefire, as in Kosovo, and then providing Ukraine with a permanent air defence shield against future missile attack.
Second, it is not for London, Paris or Washington to rule on territory. Only Ukraine can decide if it’s prepared to cede any land at all, in return for future allied protection. Any change to current borders should also consider Ukraine’s neighbours and the future security of the Black Sea region.
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