David Schenker
Earlier this month, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi urged the European Union and the United Nations to sanction and embargo arms transfers to Israel. Last week, Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood—which controls the largest bloc in parliament—claimed that two jihadis who crossed the border to kill Israelis in solidarity with Hamas were members of the organization. All told, this has been an inauspicious run-up to the thirtieth anniversary of the 1994 Jordan-Israel peace agreement.
Since its signing on October 26, 1994, the Wadi Araba Treaty has seen ups and downs. In March 1997, a Jordanian soldier murdered seven Israeli schoolgirls visiting a park on the border known as the Island of Peace. Later that year, several Mossad agents were captured in Amman while attempting to assassinate Hamas leader Khaled Mashal. Since then, on multiple occasions, both Amman and Jerusalem have withdrawn their ambassadors to protest one perceived offense or another. Notwithstanding significant adversity, however, the treaty has endured, and quiet bilateral security cooperation proceeds earnestly.
But the year-long Israel-Hamas war has stressed the relationship considerably. Nearly 60 percent of the kingdom’s population—including Queen Rania—is of Palestinian origin, so it is not surprising that events in Gaza and the West Bank resonate deeply in Jordan. Since October 7, there have been continuous sizable protests in Amman in support of Hamas and a rising popularity of Islamists demanding the cancellation of the peace treaty. During the September parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood secured thirty-one seats or twenty-two percent of the lower house.
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