13 October 2024

Why Russia’s Initial Assault on Ukraine Was Misinterpreted

Julia Kazdobina, Jakob Hedenskog & Andreas Umland

Introduction

On 17 July 2014, the world was shocked by the news of the crash, in eastern Ukraine, of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. All 298 passengers and crew on board the Boeing 777, including 80 children, were killed. While this was an exceptionally tragic event, it was only one of many fateful episodes in that year. Over the course of 2014, the largest European war since 1945 unfolded in Ukraine in a succession of ever more alarming monthly armed escalations by Russia in Crimea and the Donets Basin (Donbas).

The initial trigger of increasing tensions and the eventual start of war had been Ukraine’s ambition, since 2008, to forge a closer contractual relationship with the European Union. This happened through an Association Agreement, which included a so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Although largely about economic issues, this treaty – initialled in 2012, debated throughout 2013, and signed in 2014 – was seen by Moscow as a threat to its ambitions to continue to control Ukraine and as a dangerous model for other former Soviet republics to follow.

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