Heather Williams
On September 25, Russian president Vladimir Putin provided insights into changes to Russia’s long-anticipated new nuclear doctrine. He indicated that the nuclear mission was being “expanded” and outlined numerous changes from the previous 2020 doctrine. While the doctrine itself has yet to be released as a policy document, Putin’s comments come after hints from his allies about the Kremlin’s thinking on nuclear issues—that there exists the “basis for a nuclear war”—and from Russian officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who said in early September that Russia was updating its doctrine in response to Western intervention in the escalating war in Ukraine.
It will be important to check Putin’s comments against the doctrine document, whenever it is released. But the timing of Putin’s remarks and the changes he announced indicate Russia is increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons in an attempt to deter Western assistance to Ukraine. The purpose of the new doctrine may be not only deterrence but also an attempt to divide European allies on the basis of how much risk they are willing to accept in supporting Ukraine.
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