Pavel K. Baev
The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11 coincided with a dangerous phase in two long wars—Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine—that are both poised for escalation. Israel is set to deliver a strike on Iran in retaliation for the largest-ever attack by some 180 Iranian ballistic missiles, which primarily targeted Israeli airbases—and scored very few hits (TopWar.ru, October 8). Russia is pondering potential responses to Ukrainian long-distance strikes with Western weapon systems; this has not yet been authorized, but such a move is seen as inevitable by Moscow (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 9). The Norwegian Nobel Committee elected to hail a Japanese non-governmental organization’s project of preserving the tragic memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This points at the crucial importance of preserving the “nuclear taboo”—the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons (Kommersant, October 11).
The Nobel Prize decision was announced during Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, to discuss the finalization of a treaty on advanced strategic partnership and the expansion of military ties, the latter of which both parties denied (Izvestiya, October 11). By coincidence, another dictator—Kim Jong Un of North Korea—found the same day opportune for sending an “ultimatum” to South Korea to reinforce his earlier statements about the country’s readiness to use nuclear weapons (Interfax, October 4; RBC, October 11). These three autocrats cannot form anything resembling an alliance because their fundamental interests are exclusively about their own survival and grasp on power, but they have much in common. This is especially so with regard to their urge to assert that each rogue country’s aggressive behavior will not be deterred by Western resolve to punish transgressions against international norms, including the nuclear taboo.
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