Matthew Blackburn
Will the United States greenlight Ukrainian “deep strikes” into Russia? It is a question that has plagued American policymakers since this summer’s NATO summit. Thus far, Ukraine has largely been limited to drone attacks on Russia. This has had some success, the most recent of which was a spectacular drone strike on a weapons arsenal in Toropets on September 18. But Kyiv says this is not enough. It wants permission to fire long-range missiles (300-400km) into Russia. President Zelensky visited Washington this week to pitch his “victory plan,” which involves deep strikes and new weaponry.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently visited U.S. president Joe Biden to approve a green light to Kyiv. Several European countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Finland support the UK. In contrast, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out permission for Ukraine to use its Taurus cruise missiles. The Biden administration also appears very cautious while it weighs the costs, risks, and benefits of long-range strike approval.
There is a sense of déjà vu here. We have seen similar “sagas” of Western weapon supplies throughout this war. Recall the hesitancy to send HIMARS, then NATO tanks, ATACMS, and F-16s. Each time, America and Germany demonstrated reluctance only later to agree. In each case, the pantomime tension of “will they or won’t they” is finally resolved; Ukraine gets its weapons, and morale is boosted.
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