Hal Brands
The war in Ukraine is going badly for the good guys. Ukraine is slowly losing on the eastern front. Its forces are plagued by a dearth of manpower and ammunition. A summer incursion into Russia made headlines but didn’t change the overall trajectory of the fighting. A deep-strike missile campaign into Russia is potentially promising but has been constrained by Western ambivalence. Ukraine’s much-touted “Victory Plan” — which includes a push for North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership — hasn’t gotten much US support.
As the outlook in Ukraine darkens, there is growing pressure in Washington for a negotiated settlement. The challenge is that no one has figured out how to turn a deteriorating battlefield situation into a decent peace.
Former President Donald Trump’s plan is the simplest: Get Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy together as soon as possible and threaten them both with dire consequences if the war doesn’t end. Trump could tell Zelenskiy that he risks losing US aid if he doesn’t cut a deal; he might tell Putin that the US will increase that aid, or hit Moscow with harsher sanctions, if Russia resists.
The strategy suits Trump’s tough-guy image. A cutoff of US assistance would quickly bring Ukraine to its knees. Unfortunately, it’s less clear why the threat of more US aid to Ukraine would frighten Putin, given that Trump has spent years complaining about how much the existing aid costs.
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