Michael Hirsh
The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar this week could be an opening that might lead to the freeing of Israeli hostages and a cease-fire, but history suggests Israel and its enemies won’t take it. That’s the assessment of former U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker, a veteran diplomat known as “America’s Lawrence of Arabia” for his deep understanding of the Middle East.
Crocker spent nearly four decades representing America’s interests in the Arab world, serving as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now retired, Crocker believes the hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah — as well as Iran — are nowhere near to ending. The death of Sinwar, which followed the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah last month along with many other senior commanders, will result mainly in the continuation of a guerrilla war unless the U.S. and Israel work hard toward a cease-fire, Crocker says. And it also increases the likelihood that Iran will ramp up its nuclear weapons program.
The current situation is all too similar to what happened four decades ago when the Israelis invaded Lebanon, Crocker says. “That invasion and the subsequent Israeli occupation created Hezbollah. This invasion is not going to end it.” He adds: “One thing I’ve learned over years, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, is that the concept of the defeat of an adversary only has meaning in the mind of that adversary. If that adversary feels defeated, he is defeated. If he doesn’t, he’s not.”
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