Fabian Hoffmann
The West's strategy in addressing the war in Ukraine is driven by a strong desire to minimize escalation risks. This is especially evident in the actions of the United States and Germany, Ukraine's two largest donors by absolute numbers.
Initially, this is not incomprehensible. After all, a state's raison d’être is to ensure the safety of its citizens, which is arguably the main responsibility of elected officials.
However, the current approach to U.S. and German risk management is dangerous. In short: By trying to minimize risks at all costs, Germany and the United States may actually drive up risks.
There are no risk-free decisions
A key fact that US and German decision-makers fail to recognize is that in the current situation, there no longer are risk free decisions. The debate over lifting targeting restrictions for Western long-range strike weapons to strike targets inside Russia exemplifies this well.
On the one hand, unlikely as it may be, there is a non-zero chance that lifting these restrictions indeed crosses some type of redline, causing Russia to escalate against NATO or to employ a nuclear weapon.
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