3 October 2024

The Third Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah has begun. What’s next?

Alex Plitsas

Since the heinous terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has waged a war against Hamas to ensure that this type of attack cannot happen again. To do so, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set a goal of demilitarizing Hamas in Gaza and ensuring that it can no longer govern. Simultaneously, Iran’s largest terrorist proxy force, Hezbollah, has fired more than 8,000 rockets, missiles, and mortars into Israel, killing civilians and soldiers alike, and displacing nearly 100,000 Israeli citizens in the north. For months, world powers have been engaging in back-door diplomacy trying to head off a war to no avail. Hezbollah has refused to move its forces from near the Israeli border to the Litani River, approximately nineteen miles north, as required by United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates that any forces other than UN peacekeepers or Lebanese military must vacate.

Hamas has been severely degraded in Gaza, and Hezbollah has refused to move, so last week Israel began a new approach. This approach is in line with the one it has taken in Gaza that resulted in the first hostage deal in late November 2023. Israel has decided to exert military pressure on Hezbollah to try and force a settlement and repatriation of displaced persons in northern Israel. Here are the steps Israel has taken in the past week:

First, Israel modified the goals of the ongoing war to include returning citizens to their homes in Israel. This was a government action to make the impending military and intelligence operations conducted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad in Lebanon a part of the war and to allocate resources accordingly.

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