Mark N. Katz
The Future of the Russian Military After Ukraine: What Comes Next?
What shape will the Russian army be in after the Russia-Ukraine war ends? Much depends, of course, on how the war ends.
If the war ends because the Russian army collapses as it did in 1917, the shape of the Russian army and Russia itself will be extremely dire. Yet while it cannot be ruled out, this scenario does not seem likely.
Far more likely ways for the war to end now appear to be either a ceasefire, in which Russia retains control of Ukrainian territory it now occupies, or Ukraine agreeing to give up even more territory than it already has and making other concessions to Moscow.
Under these scenarios, the Russian army will not only remain intact, but will appear more threatening than ever to what is left of Ukraine, to other European countries less willing and able to defend themselves than Ukraine has been, and to the United States which is committed to defend its NATO allies but where the public is unprepared for a major war with Russia and the losses that it would entail. A victorious post-Ukraine war Russian army with experience of prolonged, large-scale conflict will only enhance this perception.
No comments:
Post a Comment