31 October 2024

The Nuclear Brain Trust Presidents Shouldn’t Make the Biggest Decision by Themselves

Anthony Lake and Steven Andreasen

In the decades since their invention, nuclear weapons have become much more lethal. Blasts once measured in kilotons are now measured in megatons, and warheads once dropped by slow-flying bombers are now delivered by fast-flying and deadly accurate ballistic missiles. Over the same period, the number of nuclear-armed states has grown from one to nine. Roughly half of today’s global nuclear inventory lies in the hands of Russia, China, and North Korea, all of which represent threats to the United States. Nuclear risks have multiplied, and the scenarios for the use of such weapons have grown ever more complex.

Yet today, as in past decades, U.S. presidents have the sole authority to make the most consequential decision the country may ever face. Not only might any president be overwhelmed by the gravity of a nuclear threat (or the appearance of one); even when facing no imminent threat, a president of unreliable temperament might choose to unilaterally launch a nuclear attack with huge and deadly consequences. Without consulting any other official, presidents can order a nuclear strike against another country, even if that country has not threatened or attacked the United States. In reality, the only checks on this singular power of the president are the military officers charged with transmitting and executing the president’s order. They could decide to disobey the command on the grounds that it violates U.S. or international law. But it is hard to imagine an officer doing so. In a moment of acute crisis, the fate of the world could rest solely on the shoulders of the president. Expecting one fallible human being to bear the burden of such power and responsibility is dangerous and unnecessary.

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