Bruce Hoffman
How much of a setback to Hezbollah is the Nasrallah killing?
It is a huge, potential game-changer. Nasrallah’s death is a crushing blow: one that follows on the heels of the systematic elimination by Israel of most of Hezbollah’s military leadership. In recent weeks, Israel has killed Fuad Shukr, head of Hezbollah’s strategic division and the movement’s most senior military authority; Ibrahim Aqil, the group’s operational chief who was responsible for Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit as well as that unit’s commander, Wissam al-Tawil; and over a dozen other senior commanders. Yet another senior commander, Ali Karaki, responsible for the group’s southern front adjoining Israel, was reportedly killed along with Nasrallah. Coupled with Israel’s sabotage detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah for the communication of orders and important instructions, the group has likely been rendered operationally inert—at least for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, there are no clear successors to Nasrallah given his unique and unrivalled stature at the top of the movement. Sayed Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s long-serving deputy, is a less well known outside of Lebanon and is arguably best known within Hezbollah for once having headed its religious education department. Qassem therefore arguably lacks Nasrallah’s military and strategic acumen and his political savvy. The only senior Hezbollah officers of any standing still alive is the mostly unknown Abu Ali Rida, the commander of its elite Bader unit.
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